General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan
نویسنده
چکیده
Last year, a Tokyo-based internet venture firm, Hatena Co., ran a political prediction market that was designed to predict the result of the General Election of the Lower House of the Diet, held on September 11, 2005. The market showed reasonable predictive ability that was comparable with the predictions of major newspapers and experts. In this paper, we summarize what happened at the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, and discuss the future potential of prediction markets in Japan.
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تاریخ انتشار 2006